List of Biases About the Future

Original table from Wikipedia, 3rd column is my own.

Name

Description

Future bias?

Occurs when a judgment has to be made (of a target attribute) that is computationally complex, and instead a more easily calculated heuristic attribute is substituted. This substitution is thought of as taking place in the automatic intuitive judgment system, rather than the more self-aware reflective system.

Courtesy bias

The tendency to sell an asset that has accumulated in value and resist selling an asset that has declined in value.

Dread aversion

Exaggerated expectation

Form function attribution bias

Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented.

Frequency illusion or Baader–Meinhof effect

The "hot-hand fallacy" (also known as the "hot hand phenomenon" or "hot hand") is the belief that a person who has experienced success with a random event has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts.

The speed with which people can match words depends on how closely they are associated.

The tendency to under-expect variation in small samples.

Interoceptive bias

The phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. Also known as the sunk cost fallacy.

An over-reliance on a familiar tool or methods, ignoring or under-valuing alternative approaches. "If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

The tendency to prefer a smaller set to a larger set judged separately, but not jointly.

An apparently statistically significant observation may have actually arisen by chance because of the size of the parameter space to be searched.

Occurs when someone who does something good gives themselves permission to be less good in the future.

The refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.

Ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.

The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

The phenomenon whereby others' expectations of a target person affect the target person's performance.

The tendency to have an excessive optimism towards an invention or innovation's usefulness throughout society, while often failing to identify its limitations and weaknesses.

Devaluing proposals only because they purportedly originated with an adversary.

Regressive bias

The tendency to overestimate one's ability to show restraint in the face of temptation.

Rhyming statements are perceived as more truthful. A famous example being used in the O.J Simpson trial with the defense's use of the phrase "If the gloves don't fit, then you must acquit."

The tendency to take greater risks when perceived safety increases.

The tendency to focus on items that are more prominent or emotionally striking and ignore those that are unremarkable, even though this difference is often irrelevant by objective standards.

The tendency to notice something more when something causes us to be more aware of it, such as when we buy a car, we tend to notice similar cars more often than we did before. They are not suddenly more common – we just are noticing them more. Also called the Observational Selection Bias.

The tendency for expectations to affect perception.

The tendency to over-/underestimate sexual interest of another person in oneself.

Expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.

Perception that something is true if a subject's belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.

Losing sight of the strategic construct that a measure is intended to represent, and subsequently acting as though the measure is the construct of interest.

Concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility.

Underestimations of the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) from a relatively low speed and overestimations of the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) from a relatively high speed.

Belief that mass communicated media messages have a greater effect on others than on themselves.

Unit bias

Difficulty in comparing small differences in large quantities.

Underestimation of the duration taken to traverse oft-traveled routes and overestimation of the duration taken to traverse less familiar routes.

A tendency to associate more positive attributes with women than with men.

Preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.

A bias whereby a situation is incorrectly perceived to be like a zero-sum game (i.e., one person gains at the expense of another).

Social biases[edit]

Most of these biases are labeled as attributional biases.

Name

Description

Occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would credit them with.

An exception to the fundamental attribution error, when people view others as having (situational) extrinsic motivations and (dispositional) intrinsic motivations for oneself

The biased belief that the characteristics of an individual group member are reflective of the group as a whole or the tendency to assume that group decision outcomes reflect the preferences of group members, even when information is available that clearly suggests otherwise.

When people view self-generated preferences as instead being caused by insightful, effective and benevolent agents.

People overestimate others' ability to know themselves, and they also overestimate their ability to know others.

The tendency for people to give preferential treatment to others they perceive to be members of their own groups.

The tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just, causing them to rationalize an otherwise inexplicable injustice as deserved by the victim(s).

The tendency for people to ascribe greater or lesser moral standing based on the outcome of an event.

Expecting more egocentric bias in others than in oneself.

The belief that we see reality as it really is – objectively and without bias; that the facts are plain for all to see; that rational people will agree with us; and that those who don't are either uninformed, lazy, irrational, or biased.

The tendency to defend and bolster the status quo. Existing social, economic, and political arrangements tend to be preferred, and alternatives disparaged, sometimes even at the expense of individual and collective self-interest. (See also status quo bias.)

The tendency for people to view themselves as relatively variable in terms of personality, behavior, and mood while viewing others as much more predictable.

Similar to the fundamental attribution error, in this error a person is likely to make an internal attribution to an entire group instead of the individuals within the group.

Memory errors and biases[edit]

Main article: List of memory biases

In psychology and cognitive science, a memory bias is a cognitive bias that either enhances or impairs the recall of a memory (either the chances that the memory will be recalled at all, or the amount of time it takes for it to be recalled, or both), or that alters the content of a reported memory. There are many types of memory bias, including:

Name

Description

Bizarre material is better remembered than common material.

Conservatism or Regressive bias

Consistency bias

That cognition and memory are dependent on context, such that out-of-context memories are more difficult to retrieve than in-context memories (e.g., recall time and accuracy for a work-related memory will be lower at home, and vice versa).

The tendency for people of one race to have difficulty identifying members of a race other than their own.

Recalling the past in a self-serving manner, e.g., remembering one's exam grades as being better than they were, or remembering a caught fish as bigger than it really was.

A form of misattribution where imagination is mistaken for a memory.

That self-generated information is remembered best. For instance, people are better able to recall memories of statements that they have generated than similar statements generated by others.

The tendency to forget information that can be found readily online by using Internet search engines.

Humor effect

Lag effect

List-length effect

That memory recall is higher for the last items of a list when the list items were received via speech than when they were received through writing.

The improved recall of information congruent with one's current mood.

Next-in-line effect

That people seem to perceive not the sum of an experience but the average of how it was at its peak (e.g., pleasant or unpleasant) and how it ended.

That older adults favor positive over negative information in their memories.

Processing difficulty effect

Self-relevance effect

That memories relating to the self are better recalled than similar information relating to others.

That information is better recalled if exposure to it is repeated over a long span of time rather than a short one.

The tendency to overestimate the amount that other people notice your appearance or behavior.

Stereotypical bias

Memory distorted towards stereotypes (e.g., racial or gender).

Suffix effect

A form of misattribution where ideas suggested by a questioner are mistaken for memory.

The tendency to displace recent events backward in time and remote events forward in time, so that recent events appear more remote, and remote events, more recent.

Travis Syndrome

Verbatim effect

That uncompleted or interrupted tasks are remembered better than completed ones.

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