Future Proof
  • Introduction
  • My Future
  • Your Future
  • Future Anxiety
  • Control
  • Neuroscience
  • 5 Stages of Engagement
  • Future Proofing
  • You Are Not Alone
  • 5 Stages of Engagement
    • Engagement
    • 1. Unaware
    • 2. Denial
    • 3. Resistance or Bargaining
    • 4. Flakiness
    • 5. Acceptance
  • Actions for Future Proofing
    • Future proofing leads to better public discourse
    • Mindsets for tackling the future
    • Becoming Future Proof
    • Learn to be Creative
    • Diversification
    • Taking Action
    • The Past is Done
    • Cognitive Bias
    • Future Self
    • Simplification
  • Small Cogs and Rapid Change
  • The Role of the Individual
  • Social Tipping Point Research
  • Societal Change
  • Maths
  • Making Tipping Points Happen
  • Annex
    • List of Biases About the Future
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Maths

What can the mathematics of networks, social interactions and agent-based modelling tell us?

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Last updated 5 years ago

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Use of agent-based modelling to either

  • Better understand the type of networks and agents involved plus the way their connections work, or to;

  • Make predictions about the impact/success of new interventions and the changes they might generate

This approach runs the risk of predestination - that is, the chosen parameters pre-define the outcome, rather than 'emergence' occurring where new states appear that were not predicted. It may also bias the network towards individuals and ignore impact of technology or infrastructure.

Networks of interacting agents (e.g. people or companies) tend to be complex systems with settled states that have the potential for rapid change into new states. The principles (and in fact physical realities) are the same as those underlying the concept of tipping points.

Further Reading

Clarke (2013) ""

Castellani & Hafferty (2009) ""

Köller et al (2018) ""

Sustainability Transitions Research Network - the is "international network of scholars interested in the sustainable transformation of socio-technical systems".

Cellular Automata and Agent-Based Models
Sociology and Complexity Science
Modelling Sustainability Transitions: An Assessment of Approaches and Challenges
STRN